NHL and SAP Introduce Advanced Stats
The NHL entered a multi-year partnership with SAP (the enterprise application software and database leader) and collaborated on the transformation of the NHL’s statistics platform to introducte the new and enhanced statistics that will establish NHL.com/Stats as the definitive destination for hockey analytics. Fans, broadcasters and media around the world will be able to analyze official League, team and player statistics via a more comprehensive, interactive and personalized interface that includes advanced search features and new filters for team and player comparisons.
Phase One: the NHL.com/Stats redesign includes the League’s presentation of enhanced statistics – shot attempts (SAT), unblocked shot attempts (USAT) and shooting plus save percentage (SPSV%) – and the introduction of more than 30 new extended statistics, including first and second assists (1st A, 2nd A), goals by time (G/20), penalties (taken and drawn) by time (Pen/20, PenDr/20) and average shot length (ASL).
Phase Two: In time for the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the NHL.com/Stats redesign will feature analysis for every Stanley Cup Playoffs game and series. Based on a team’s recent performance, each series will be examined based on an algorithm that incorporates 37 variables – such as road record, goals against, special teams statistics, and many more. NHL.com/Stats also will feature advanced filtering to enable game, season and career comparisons between players, teams and games, delivered in dynamic line graphs.
Phase Three: Shortly before the start of the 2015-16 NHL season, the NHL.com/Stats redesign will incorporate additional new features that could include new metrics, innovative visualizations, active player comparison tools, player performance prediction tools, NHL pre-season rankings and NHL team power indexes.
Phase Four: In 2016, to coincide with the launch of the NHL’s Centennial Celebration, the NHL.com/Stats redesign will feature the entire official statistical history of the NHL, including every box score dating back to the NHL’s inaugural 1917-18 season. Once the complete archives of the NHL’s statistics are fully integrated, new tools and functionality of NHL.com/Stats, including advanced filtering and visualizations, will be applied to the entire history of the League. For the first time ever, fans will be able to compare players and teams spanning all generations.
The Basics: Since advanced stats have now been included on NHL website, here is a quick breakdown on some of the new numbers.
SAT (previously Corsi) – Shot Attempts shots on goal (goals, saves, missed shots, blocked shots), measured during 5-on-5 or even-strength play, and expressed either as a plus-minus number or as a percentage. When using these stats, shot attempts is typically used for individual players because, by including blocked shots in the calculation, it reaches a useful sample size quicker.
USAT (previously Fenwick) – Unblocked shot attempts, which includes attempted shots on goal (goals, saves, missed shots) but it doesn’t include blocked shots. Unblocked shot attempts are used more often when measuring at the team level because using a whole team’s attempted shots provides a viable sample size sooner and allows the skill of shot blocking (or avoiding blocked shots) to be part of the equation.
SPSV% (previously PDO) – Combines 5-on-5 on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage and is effectively used as a measure of luck (or good/bad fortune; basically, things beyond an individual’s control). On-ice shooting percentage is the percentage for all players when a particular player is on the ice. Few players have an ability to consistently affect the shooting percentage of the other four players on the ice. At the other end of the spectrum, any number of checking forwards will have very low on-ice shooting percentages, but that’s often a reflection of the relative skill level of fourth line players. Individual players, that aren’t goaltenders, don’t have much sustainable effect on save percentage.
SAT, USAT Close – Measures shot attempts when games are within one goal through the first two periods or tied in the third. Using these circumstances reduces score effects.
Score Effects – The reason that “close” results are used, particularly on team measures, is that NHL teams tend to go into a defensive shell when they have a third-period lead and it tends to tilt shot attempts in favour of the team that is trailing.
Score-Adjusted – Rather than using only “close” game situations, score-adjusted also covers when teams are up or down 1-2 goals. By comparing to league averages in those situations, it allows for a quicker evaluation – which is helpful for making in-season determinations.
SAT Relative – The difference between shot attempts when a player is on the ice and when he’s off the ice. (Ex. Patrice Bergeron’s SAT% is 58.4% and the Bruins are 48.8% when Bergeron is off the ice, giving him an SAT Relative of +9.6%). Relative stats are useful for finding value, especially when crossing teams as it is an attempt to limit the influence of teammates on results. This can be measured by percentage, as in the example above, or as a plus-minus number (also frequently as a rate per/60 or per/20 minutes of 5-on-5 play).
Zone Start% – Measures the percentage of face-offs between the offensive and defensive zone to start a shift. Some players (Sedins under Alain Vigneault, Patrick Kane, Mike Ribeiro) get their shifts tilted as coaches try to get offensively-skilled players starting more often in the offensive zone, whereas others are deployed as defensive and faceoff specialists (Manny Malhotra, Dave Bolland, Boyd Gordon) who consistently start much more frequently in the defensive zone. This helps provide context to a player’s stats and offers some measurable evidence regarding how a particular player is being deployed.