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Connor Bedard Watch at All-Star Break

2 February, 2023 (15:09) | HOCKEY TALK | By: Nick

Fall Hard for BEDARD

It’s an excellent time to be a terrible hockey team.

NHL Draft Lottery Odds through games played NHL All-Star break

Rank Team Record Pts % Lottery Odds
1. Columbus Blue Jackets 15-32-4 .333 25.5%
2. Chicago Blackhawks 15-29-4 .354 13.5%
3. Anaheim Ducks 16-28-5 .370 11.5%
4. Montréal Canadiens* 20-26-3 .431 10.5%
5. Arizona Coyotes 16-28-6 .380 9.5%
6. San Jose Sharks 15-25-11 .402 8.5%
7. Vancouver Canucks 20-26-3 .439 6.5%
8. St. Louis Blues 23-25-3 .480 6%
9. Philadelphia Flyers 21-21-9 .500 5%
10. Ottawa Senators 24-23-9 .510 3.5%

* Canadiens own the Florida Panthers’ 2023 1st Round Pick, which is not lottery protected, from the March 16, 2022 trade for Ben Chiarot. So the Canadiens’ effective Lottery Odds, as represented in the above chart, are computed by adding the Habs’ own draft pick’s odds plus the odds of Florida’s original pick, but only if the Florida Panthers are in the top 11 in the lottery ranks.

As a result of Draft Lottery rule changes made effective in 2021, a team may only move up a maximum of 10 spots from their finishing position. That means only the bottom 11 teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick. Therefore, instead of the published odds which indicate the 32nd place team has an 18.5 percent chance – which was accurate when all 16 non-playoff teams had a crack at the No. 1 pick – the additional percentages from those five clubs are effectively applied to the 32nd place finisher.

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