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Bedard Draft Lottery Odds Finalized

16 April, 2023 (09:46) | HOCKEY TALK | By: Nick

The Anaheim Ducks will have the top odds to land the 2023 first-overall pick.

Anaheim finishes the 2022-23 campaign with a league-worst 58 points following the team’s 5-3 loss against the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday, giving them the best chance to win the draft lottery.

Here are the final odds for each team:

TEAM LOTTERY ODDS
Anaheim Ducks 18.5%*
Columbus Blue Jackets 13.5%
Chicago Blackhawks 11.5%
San Jose Sharks 9.5%
Montreal Canadiens 8.5%
Arizona Coyotes 7.5%
Philadelphia Flyers 6.5%
Washington Capitals 6.0%
Detroit Red Wings 5.0%
St. Louis Blues 3.5%
Vancouver Canucks 3.0%
Arizona Coyotes via OTT 2.5%
Buffalo Sabres 2.0%
Pittsburgh Penguins 1.5%
Nashville Predators 0.5%
Calgary Flames 0.5%

The Ducks have an 18.5% chance of winning the draft lottery but a 25.5% chance of drafting first overall, as teams can only move up 10 spots with a lottery win. Ottawa, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Nashville, and Calgary can’t pick first overall.

Columbus will have the second-best lottery odds after losing in regulation against the Buffalo Sabres on Friday.

The draft lottery will be held Monday, May 8.

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Connor Bedard Watch at Trade Deadline

6 March, 2023 (09:59) | HOCKEY TALK | By: Nick

Fall Hard for BEDARD

NHL Draft Lottery Odds through games played by NHL Trade Deadline.

Rank Team Record Pts % Lottery Odds
1. Columbus Blue Jackets 20-37-6 .365 25.5%
2. Chicago Blackhawks 21-36-5 .379 13.5%
3. San Jose Sharks 18-33-12 .381 11.5%
4. Anaheim Ducks 21-34-8 .397 9.5%
5. Arizona Coyotes 21-32-10 .413 8.5%
6. Vancouver Canucks 25-32-5 .444 7.5%
7. Montreal Canadiens 26-33-4 .444 6.5%
8. Philadelphia Flyers 24-28-11 .468 6.0%
9. St. Louis Blues 27-30-5 .476 5.0%
10. Detroit Red Wings 28-26-9 .516 3.5%
11. Washington Capitals 31-27-6 .531 3.0%

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Connor Bedard Watch at All-Star Break

2 February, 2023 (15:09) | HOCKEY TALK | By: Nick

Fall Hard for BEDARD

It’s an excellent time to be a terrible hockey team.

NHL Draft Lottery Odds through games played NHL All-Star break

Rank Team Record Pts % Lottery Odds
1. Columbus Blue Jackets 15-32-4 .333 25.5%
2. Chicago Blackhawks 15-29-4 .354 13.5%
3. Anaheim Ducks 16-28-5 .370 11.5%
4. Montréal Canadiens* 20-26-3 .431 10.5%
5. Arizona Coyotes 16-28-6 .380 9.5%
6. San Jose Sharks 15-25-11 .402 8.5%
7. Vancouver Canucks 20-26-3 .439 6.5%
8. St. Louis Blues 23-25-3 .480 6%
9. Philadelphia Flyers 21-21-9 .500 5%
10. Ottawa Senators 24-23-9 .510 3.5%

* Canadiens own the Florida Panthers’ 2023 1st Round Pick, which is not lottery protected, from the March 16, 2022 trade for Ben Chiarot. So the Canadiens’ effective Lottery Odds, as represented in the above chart, are computed by adding the Habs’ own draft pick’s odds plus the odds of Florida’s original pick, but only if the Florida Panthers are in the top 11 in the lottery ranks.

As a result of Draft Lottery rule changes made effective in 2021, a team may only move up a maximum of 10 spots from their finishing position. That means only the bottom 11 teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick. Therefore, instead of the published odds which indicate the 32nd place team has an 18.5 percent chance – which was accurate when all 16 non-playoff teams had a crack at the No. 1 pick – the additional percentages from those five clubs are effectively applied to the 32nd place finisher.

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